Market News: EU Bank Rescue, Moody’s Downgrade, IMF, Costco Earnings, Apple iPhone 4S, Dexia Spinoff, Yahoo Sale
Whiff of EU bank rescue ignites melt-up. News that FMs are pondering a backstop for shaky eurozone banks sparked a late-day 400 point rally in the Dow. Details of the plan are sketchy, but markets were hungry for a sign that EU diplomats are taking the unstable capital positions of their banks seriously. Much-maligned bank stocks rallied in Europe this morning, with BNP Paribas (BNPQY.PK), SocGen (SCGLY.PK) and Credit Agricole (CRARY.PK) all up more than 5%.
Italy shrugs off Moody’s downgrade. Moody’s downgraded Italy 3 notches from Aa2 to A2 with negative outlook, citing long-term funding risks for EU sovereigns, downside risks to economic growth, and the implementation risks to the government’s fiscal consolidation program. Markets, elated with the thought of an EU bank rescue (see above), shrugged off the news – as did Italy, saying the decision was “expected.”
IMF to the rescue. Antonio Borges, head of the IMF’s Europe program, said this morning eurozone banks need no more than €200B to restore investor confidence, “which in our view is very, very small compared to the size of the European capital markets.” Borges also said the IMF is willing to “invest alongside” the European Financial Stability Facility when it buys bonds from Italy and Spain, and that the IMF would “definitely participate” in a second bailout package for Greece if it demonstrated a willingness to solve its debt problems.
Costco proves it’s recession resistant. Costco’s (COST) FQ4 earnings rose a better-than-expected 11% to $478M ($1.08/share) as it continues to post sales and membership-fee growth. Same-store sales rose 11% in the U.S. and 14% internationally. Costco’s ability to attract value-driven buyers in a difficult economic environment, and its solid free cash flow, is one reason its chart is so pretty.
In Europe, the shrinkage begins. Eurozone private-sector growth contracted for the first time in two years, suggesting the broader economy could go into recession in Q4. Markit’s Services PMI fell to 48.8 from 51.5 in Aug. New business dove to 46.5 from 49.8, and expectations – which measures business optimism – shrank more than three points.
Did Tim Cook just leave the door open? Apple (AAPL) watchers were underwhelmed by yesterday’s Let’s Talk iPhone event, at which new CEO Tim Cook introduced a new iPhone 4S boasting an A5 chip, faster graphics, a better camera, and some neat voice features – but no gee-whiz chassis. The rare failure to wow fans could open a crack for Android providers; shares of Nokia (NOK), Ericsson (ERIC), HTC (HTCXF.PK), LG Electronics (LGEGF.PK), and Samsung (SSNLF.PK) all posted gains. Apple shares dropped more than 4% during the event, but recovered amid a broad late-day rally.
BNY Mellon cheated clients out of billions, AGs say. The U.S. AG in Manhattan and the New York AG filed lawsuits against Bank of New York Mellon (BK) Tuesday, saying it routinely charged customers inflated exchange rates on currency transactions, profiting to the tune of more than $2B. BNY Mellon denies any wrongdoing, saying the accusations are based on a flawed understanding of its role as a forex dealer.
Ben boosts bank stocks. Bank stocks rallied Tuesday after Fed chief Bernanke said he expects Operation Twist to yield the equivalent of a 20 bps cut in the fed funds rate. In testimony before Congress, Bernanke warned that the economic recovery “is close to faltering,” said Twist will provide “meaningful but not enormous support,” and cautioned monetary policy “is not a panacea.” Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) rose 4%. JPM+6.5%. BAC +4.2%. C +5.5%.
Dexia could spin off big bad bank. Sources say flailing Dexia (DXBGY.PK) will set up a bad bank to park €180B in toxic assets, part of a larger plan that will look to dismantle the huge lender. France and Belgium will initially back the bad bank with guarantees, and eventually take over its ownership.
Yahoo gets its books in order. Yahoo (YHOO) gained another 6.9% Tuesday and is +2.2% premarket on reports of a joint bid featuring Alibaba (ALBCF.PK), and rumors the company is preparing to send financial information to potential buyers – a signal Yahoo is seriously thinking about a possible sale.
Stage set for foreclosure review. 4.5M current and former homeowners will have a chance to get their foreclosure cases examined to see if they should be compensated for banks’ mistakes. Borrowers deemed to have suffered financial injury could be eligible for compensation, but few if any borrowers are expected to have foreclosures overturned.
BofA to sever ties with smaller lenders. Bank of America (BAC) will shutter its correspondent lending business after failing to reach a deal to sell the unit to Fortress Investment (FIG). The closure will cut off a significant portion of the bank’s mortgage origination volume; loans purchased from correspondents accounted for $27.4B in originations during Q1.
Scan for 23rd September – Markets Getting Clobbered
TZOO was a $100 stock back in May. 4 months later it stands at low 23s. Sick sick drop. Looking for long reversal on this one. Bounce to 28s.

NFLX is going through a rough patch with media, investors and subscribers who are not happy over the subscription price increase and separate websites for mail-in DVD business v/s online streaming. NFLX flaunted $300 in July. 2 months later it stands literally clobbered at 128s. The big question is it forming a base in 125s region to rebound higher? I am looking for bounce to 140s.

YOKU was overvalued pig at $70s. It was a great momentum stock for traders. Bullish traders enjoyed good rise from $30 to $70 with 4 months. Another 4 months go by and YOKU is where it should belong, in the teens. That said, it is definitely getting very attractive for long position. Will be interesting to see $14 base hold or not?

OMG on DANG. $30 stocks clobbered to low single digit. Looking for a wash at $4.50s to take long entry.

MT hitting multi-year lows. Simply crazy the way it has come down. $40 stable stock now sits in lower $15 range. No end in sight. However $15 did hold as support today. Will be interesting to see if it can hold that level and move higher.

ANR is another stock that is clobbered. $60s in May and now sitting at $20s.

FCX same story as ANR, MT…

GMCR could be an interesting short into any spikes. $100 will be critical level to break.

OPTR did not get the memo that the Dow was down 500pts at one-time. This stock has a mind of its own. Ridiculous spike. 17.20s acting as strong resistance lately. Definitely short-biased

LULU has room for more downside. Watching for spikes to short into. Been stubborn short lately, but risk/reward still weighs on the short side.

PANL looks like a double-top at $60 chart. Attractive short below $50 support level. Will be watching closely for short entry.

Scans for 4th August – Dow ends green after 9 red days!
Overvalued pig! Going to risk shorting via puts into earnings. Risky play…

Another overvalued pig. Will be reporting earnings soon! I hope it guides up and hits 90s. Would love to short in that region

3x ETF. Getting clobbered from $90 to $60. Currently long. Looking for $69s to exist.

Beat down chart, looking for more panic selling and then reversal.

Another beat down chart. Lets see some strength first to buy into.

Solid company getting beaten down due to weak quarter and competitive market. Nice bottoms at 22.80s. $25 definitely on the cards if market can held up.

Nice reversal and break of $10. Long opportunity on further strength. Stop loss $9.99

Upgraded today. Sold off from $42 to $32. Nice reversal. Buy on dips. Preferably 33s.

Earnings miss drop. Really overdone. Breaking $30 is key to taking long position

Lets see some more squeeze to 24s before shorting.

Low floater. Very risky play. Potential short on any big spikes.
